I'm going to be a dick and say "try it and see!"
I haven't used it yet, but
this blog post made me aware of something called
vmtouch, which allows you to see (and control) what's in your cache. This can probably help answer that question.
And, of course, the standard admonition applies: If you aren't using munin or something similar to monitor memory usage, disk I/O, varnish stats, and page load times, you should install that and get it going before you even think of doing anything else. Web servers/applications/caches form a very complex system. Do you
know if varnish is helping at all, or if you are even using 1 GB of it?

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