KHobbits wrote:
Last month
5 IPv4 address blocks got allocated (a total of 19 so far this year), leaving only 7 ranges left.
While estimates vary due to this recent accusation, the estimated time till IPv4 exhaustion has been updated to reflect this. The result being
around 3-4 months. I don't expect the purchase rate to stay steady, when a resource is reaching exhaustion, people will rush to ensure they have enough room for expansion. Obviously IPv6 adoption will probably increase exponentially too.
Just because the ranges are allocated there won't be addressed available on the ISP level or higher. After exhaustion addresses will probably be released by ISP's who have switched to IPv6, and due to the ease of use I would expect IPv4 to be used in hosting for quite a while, it is much easier to type an IPv4 into an address bar.
As the RIRs have been applying for /8's from IANA roughly when they only have 2 /8's to assign, and the fact that a couple of the larger allocations are 'dirty' (the 1/8 block for instance) it is actually dire. Potaroo.net (
http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html) estimates December 2011 as the time when all usable ranges of remaining IPs will be assigned to their ISPs etc.
Tunnels from companies like HE.net are great for testing and experimentation, but they are not replacements from the real thing, or at the very least an ISP/provider run tunnel with native connectivity past the tunnel. GeoDNS is a particularly key example of this. Like it or not, but IPv6 is coming.
Also for statistics sake...
http://www.potaroo.net/ispcol/2010-10/when.html roughly 11.3 /8's were split up and assigned to end users/etc by the RIRs Jan 2010 to Oct 2010. That is a lot of IPs.